Has M&A recovery finally started? Our analysis tells us that since 2021 when Global M&A was at its peak the market has dropped every year since. We thought this would normalise back to pre 2021 levels, but we soon understood in 2022 that the outlook would continue to slow, ending up at levels not seen since 2016.

We did think that 2024 would be a recovery year given that M&A almost always bounces back from back to back declines, as was the case in 2022 and 2023. The prior two downturns of 2007-2008 and 2001-2002 registered peaks and troughs declines of approximately 60% to 70%. This compares to a decline of 34.7% in 2022-2023, setting the stage for a more modest recovery, which appears to be playing out.